These 11 countries could face extreme instability from climate change, says U.S. intelligence
WASHINGTON – The nation’s collective intelligence community identified 11 countries vulnerable to geopolitical instability due to climate change in its first-ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change report.
According to the report, Afghanistan, Burma, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq, Nicaragua, North Korea and Pakistan are likely to face a slew of extreme weather episodes that pose threats to energy, food, water and health security.
“Diminished energy, food and water security in the 11 countries probably will exacerbate poverty, tribal or ethnic intercommunal tensions and dissatisfaction with governments, increasing the risk of social, economic, and political instability,” said the report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the nation’s 18 intelligence agencies.
More generally, “intensifying physical effects will exacerbate geopolitical flashpoints, particularly after 2030, and key countries and regions will face increasing risks of instability and need for humanitarian assistance,” the report said.
The report outlines a number of scenarios:
Rising temperatures and increased precipitation may amplify mosquito and diarrheal disease outbreaks in South Asian and Central American countries, worsening health outcomes and causing additional loss of life.
More frequent and intense cyclones are likely to contaminate water sources, with scientific models suggesting dengue incidence will likely increase in Afghanistan, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq and Pakistan.
Climate change will likely accelerate the loss of biodiversity leading to more extinctions of plants and animals that can no longer survive in their traditional habitats and risking ecosystems that global populations rely on for food and medicine.
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